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Records of the 1948 election voting study in Elmira, New York

Call Number

MS 196

Date

1939-1972 (bulk, 1948-1954), inclusive

Creator

Berelson, Bernard, 1912-1979

Extent

14.88 Linear feet in 14 record cartons, one document box, and 67 phonograph records

Language of Materials

The documents in this collection are in English.

Abstract

The records of the 1948 election voting study in Elmira, New York, include the documentation underlying the book Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign, co-authored by Bernard R. Berelson, Paul F. Lazarsfeld, and William N. McPhee. In this study, the authors sought to analyze how citizens made up their minds as to how to vote. The study centered on the 1948 U.S. presidential contest between Harry S. Truman and Thomas E. Dewey, using the "normal community" of Elmira, New York, as the test site. The records include the completed questionnaires administered to over 1,000 participants at four points in time during and after the election campaign, study administration files, analyses, background reference materials, local newspapers and other periodicals from Elmira, and phonograph recordings of topical radio broadcasts, especially those of Fulton Lewis, Jr. and of Meet the Press.

Historical Note

The records of the 1948 election voting study in Elmira, New York, include the documentation underlying the book Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign, co-authored by Bernard R. Berelson, Paul F. Lazarsfeld, and William N. McPhee. The authors positioned their study as one of a series conducted by various scholars in the context of different elections from 1940 to 1952. Their overall aim was to attain a "better understanding of the processes of democratic elections," particularly in terms of how citizens make up their minds as to how to vote (Voting, vii). The 1948 presidential election pitted the Democratic Party candidate and incumbent U.S. President Harry S. Truman against the Republican Party nominee and New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey. But the primary and general campaigns were also notable for the range of other viable candidates or potential candidates from across the political spectrum, from Henry A. Wallace on the left to Strom Thurmond on the right. Further, this was the first presidential election since the end of World War II, at a time of great changes domestically and internationally, and the first since the early 1930s without Franklin D. Roosevelt at the head of the Democratic ticket. Throughout the election season, Truman was viewed as such a vulnerable candidate that the mass media conveyed the expectation that Dewey would defeat him, yet Truman won, elected by 2.5 million votes. It was in this volatile political environment that Bernard Berelson and his team launched their study of voters and voting.

Berelson acquired his Ph.D. in 1941 from the Graduate Library School at the University of Chicago. His thesis focused on the mass media's effect on the formation of public political opinion. In 1944, he joined the Bureau of Applied Social Research at Columbia University, where its founder, Paul Lazarsfeld, was also interested in the power of mass media and its influence on public opinion. In 1944, Lazarsfeld and Berelson's work The People's Choice was published, a study of the 1940 election, using Erie County, Ohio, as the site of analysis. Berelson returned to Chicago in 1946, but kept in contact with Lazarsfeld, eventually planning a study of the upcoming 1948 election.

Berelson and Lazarsfeld chose Elmira (including the surrounding unincorporated towns) as the site of their 1948 study because it represented a "normal" community from which generalizations might be drawn. Specifically, Elmira was of moderate population size; independent but not isolated from any metropolitan district; socially and economically stable; had good media exposure with a typical educational and cultural environment; had a balanced labor and industrial situation; was politically competitive; and had a typical ethnic composition. They divided a map of Elmira into 816 segments, numbering them in a serpentine fashion, and selected every third segment, yielding 271 segments to visit. Within the segments, all households (about 6,000) were noted with the final sample of 1,267 households chosen from those. Interviews were then attempted, with a final sample size of respondents totaling 1,029.

Berelson and Lazarsfeld decided to employ the so-called "panel method" in Elmira by which the same individuals were interviewed at multiple points over time in order to assess the dynamics of their decision making process. Accordingly, the study team implemented four "waves" of questionnaires in 1948: in June, before the party nominees were decided at the July conventions; in August, after the conventions and before the campaigns' fall push; in October, as the election drew near; and in November, right after the election. (The collection also holds questionnaires from 1950, but Voting does not seem to refer to these and it is unclear what their relationship to the initial study is.) Not all members of the panel participated in all four waves for various reasons, but 746 (72%) did. 907 (88%) participated in three of the four waves. Only 43 (4%) participated in June and then dropped out.

Subsequent to the fieldwork, William N. McPhee, who was a sociologist and invented a computer simulation model for voting, joined the Elmira study team. McPhee used a computer to help analyze the results of the survey and he wrote several chapters of Voting, which was published in 1954, six years after the election.

(The principal sources for this note were Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign, documents in the collection and Wikipedia.)

Arrangement

The collection is organized in three series:

Series I. General Project Documents, 1948- 1972 (bulk, 1948-1954)

Series II. Questionnaires, 1948-1950

Series III: Reference Materials, 1947-1948

Scope and Contents

The records of the 1948 election voting study in Elmira, New York, include the project documents compiled, most likely, by Bernard R. Berelson, and that underlie the publication Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign. These documents include the project's files concerning administration, planning, funding, methodology, field interviewer instructions, data coding, and analysis. The collection includes an extensive number, perhaps all, of the completed questionnaires and interviews from the study. These include the four "waves" of questionnaires implemented in 1948 and discussed in Voting, probing voter attitudes toward the Presidential candidates, their perspective on key national and international issues, and influences on their voting choice. There are also two additional sets of questionnaires from 1950 that relate, although in an unclear manner, to the Elmira study. The collection also includes examples of mass media with potential influence on voting behavior in Elmira, especially local newspapers and other periodicals and recordings of radio broadcasts over local station WENY. Most of these recordings are of the syndicated national program of conservative newscaster, Fulton Lewis, Jr.

Access Restrictions

This collection is stored offsite. For information on making arrangements to consult it, please visit www.nyhistory.org/library/visit.

Use Restrictions

Taking images of documents from the library collections for reference purposes by using hand-held cameras and in accordance with the library's photography guidelines is encouraged. As an alternative, patrons may request up to 20 images per day from staff.

Application to use images from this collection for publication should be made in writing to: Department of Rights and Reproductions, The New-York Historical Society, 170 Central Park West, New York, NY 10024-5194, rightsandrepro@nyhistory.org. Phone: (212) 873-3400 ext. 282.

Copyrights and other proprietary rights may subsist in individuals and entities other than the New-York Historical Society, in which case the patron is responsible for securing permission from those parties. For fuller information about rights and reproductions from N-YHS visit: https://www.nyhistory.org/about/rights-reproductions

The collection includes several phonograph records. These are restricted from use because of their fragility and because N-YHS does not have the playback equipment.

Preferred Citation

This record group should be cited as Records of the 1948 Election Study in Elmira, New York, MS 196, The New-York Historical Society.

Location of Materials

This collection is stored offsite. For information on making arrangements to consult it, please visit www.nyhistory.org/library/visit.

Immediate Source of Acquisition

The source of the collection is somewhat uncertain, but appears to have been donated in December 1972 by Columbia University's Bureau of Applied Social Research.

Related Materials

Columbia University Libraries holds the Bureau of Applied Social Research Records, 1944-1976. These records include several files concerning the 1948 Elmira study. These can be found at:

Series I (Project Index): http://findingaids.cul.columbia.edu/ead/nnc-rb/ldpd_5012632/dsc/1/

and Series III (Reports): http://findingaids.cul.columbia.edu/ead/nnc-rb/ldpd_5012632/dsc/3/

Collection processed by

Jiyang Chun

About this Guide

This finding aid was produced using ArchivesSpace on 2023-08-21 15:51:12 -0400.
Using Describing Archives: A Content Standard
Language: English

Processing Information

The collection was processed in 2017 by archival intern Jiyang Chun.

Repository

New-York Historical Society
New-York Historical Society
170 Central Park West
New York, NY 10024